Frasi di Philip E. Tetlock

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✵ 2. Marzo 1954
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Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock
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Philip E. Tetlock Frasi e Citazioni

“To illustrate, imagine”

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Philip E. Tetlock: Frasi in inglese

“What do you do, sir?”

Philip E. Tetlock libro Superforecasting

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“The intellectually aggressive hedgehogs knew one big thing and sought, under the banner of parsimony, to expand the explanatory power of that big thing to “cover” new cases; the more eclectic foxes knew many little things and were content to improvise ad hoc solutions to keep pace with a rapidly changing world.”

About prediction and forecasting. Fox commented that "psychologist Philip Tetlock (following the lead of Isaiah Berlin), divided the world of political forecasters into hedgehogs and foxes."
Origine: Justin Fox. " How to Be Bad at Forecasting https://hbr.org/2012/05/how-to-be-bad-at-forecasting.html," in Harvard Business Review, May 11, 2012.

“How you think matters more than what you think.”

Philip Tetlock, quoted in: Stewart Brand (2010). Whole Earth Discipline. p. 124

“beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”

Philip E. Tetlock libro Superforecasting

[Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, McClelland & Stewart, 2015, 078-0-7710-7052-5, 127]