Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting
Philip E. TetlockPhilip E. Tetlock Frasi e Citazioni
Philip E. Tetlock: Frasi in inglese
Paul Monk, Australian Financial Review, cited in: Philip E. Tetlock. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, 2015. Back cover.
About
About prediction and forecasting. Fox commented that "psychologist Philip Tetlock (following the lead of Isaiah Berlin), divided the world of political forecasters into hedgehogs and foxes."
Origine: Justin Fox. " How to Be Bad at Forecasting https://hbr.org/2012/05/how-to-be-bad-at-forecasting.html," in Harvard Business Review, May 11, 2012.
“How you think matters more than what you think.”
Philip Tetlock, quoted in: Stewart Brand (2010). Whole Earth Discipline. p. 124
“beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
[Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, McClelland & Stewart, 2015, 078-0-7710-7052-5, 127]