Frasi di Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock photo
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Philip E. Tetlock

Data di nascita: 2. Marzo 1954

Philip E. Tetlock - ci manca una descrizione più dettagliata dell'autore.

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Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock

Frasi Philip E. Tetlock

„To illustrate, imagine“

—  Philip E. Tetlock, libro Superforecasting

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

„What do you do, sir?“

—  Philip E. Tetlock, libro Superforecasting

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

„beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.“

—  Philip E. Tetlock, libro Superforecasting

[Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, McClelland & Stewart, 2015, 078-0-7710-7052-5, 127]

„The intellectually aggressive hedgehogs knew one big thing and sought, under the banner of parsimony, to expand the explanatory power of that big thing to “cover” new cases; the more eclectic foxes knew many little things and were content to improvise ad hoc solutions to keep pace with a rapidly changing world.“

—  Philip E. Tetlock

About prediction and forecasting. Fox commented that "psychologist Philip Tetlock (following the lead of Isaiah Berlin), divided the world of political forecasters into hedgehogs and foxes."
Origine: Justin Fox. " How to Be Bad at Forecasting https://hbr.org/2012/05/how-to-be-bad-at-forecasting.html," in Harvard Business Review, May 11, 2012.

„How you think matters more than what you think.“

—  Philip E. Tetlock

Philip Tetlock, quoted in: Stewart Brand (2010). Whole Earth Discipline. p. 124

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